Digging into 3,000+ data from 15 categories in the 3.8 promotion, who is growing?

This year's 3.8 promotion has passed, but the data of various brand categories are still worth observing and analyzing. This article observes and analyzes 15 categories in the TOP30 brands of the mainstream first-level categories of this year's Tmall 3.8 promotion, and selects brands worthy of attention for further analysis based on changes in sales data.

A few days ago, many people must have seen this picture:

Actually, when I saw this picture, I had a question: What is the statistical caliber of the 2023 GMV in the picture? How many days does the statistical period cover?

Does it feel like nothing is made clear, but we subconsciously feel that it seems "very reasonable"?

Therefore, Daofa contacted Mojing Market Intelligence and immediately obtained the TOP30 brand list of mainstream first-level categories of this year's Tmall 3.8 promotion (statistical period: 3.1-3.8), conducted observations and insights on 15 of these categories , and selected brands worthy of attention for further analysis based on changes in sales data.

Without further ado, let’s quickly present the content for everyone to have a look!

*For ease of reading, this article has combined some categories

1. Snacks/Nuts/Specialties

• National giants are under great pressure, while regional leaders are performing well
• The "OEM + OEM" model is facing challenges, and the "R&D, production and sales" full chain is very reliable

After the epidemic is lifted, we finally don’t have to stay at home like we did in 2022! Because of this, during this year’s 3.8 promotion, mainstream consumption scenarios such as staying at home, watching TV series, and family sharing were weakened, and the snack market as a whole became more rational compared with last year.

The performance of several snack giants was not satisfactory, while Yanjin Shop and Kaililai had strong growth. By comparison, it was found that the latter two started with their own factories and implemented the "research, production and sales" full-link strategy earlier. Kaililai is also a leading snack food company in Henan Province. Previously, it mainly sold in the province and surrounding areas, but in recent years it has expanded its sales network to cover the whole country.

In fact, in the past two years, snack giants have been extending the industrial chain and promoting the independent construction of nut snack factories.

Even a small bag of snacks can reflect the truth that "marketing is not so effective, quality is king."

Another eye-opener is that Kuibaotang, which ranks TOP8, has a sales volume of over 3,000 during this promotion, with a GMV of nearly 10 million! It is noted that the average customer price of some of its products is as high as 2,000-5,000 yuan, and it focuses on the health track - tangerine peel category. In other words, scenes such as healthy gift giving are worth paying attention to.

2. Coffee/cereal/instant drink

The epidemic buff disappears, and new and old brands are fighting again

When I saw the data of some emerging brands, a big question mark lingered in my mind: Is instant coffee no longer fragrant?

Combined with the performance of overseas brands and domestic traditional brands, sales of more than one brand are declining. A bold guess has emerged: during the epidemic last year, the psychological imprint of coffee and cola, which have the characteristics of "self-pleasing" and "hard currency", is fading. In addition, with the Double Eleven and New Year's Festival, people don't need to stock up all at once on the March 8th node, and there are more choices online and offline!

In the dairy product segment, the two giants can be said to appreciate each other. They are both exploring the path of brand rejuvenation, adhering to long-termism and prioritizing product-effect synergy, and can't be impatient. In contrast, the performance of the backbone forces such as Deya, Bright Dairy, Suntory, and Sanyuan can be described in one word: stable.

So what will they do in the next phase? Let's wait and see.

3. Makeup/Perfume/Beauty Tools

Women don't like "makeup" but "arms"

Among the TOP30 lists, the sales of nearly half of the brands dropped by 50% or more. I believe that the international beauty brands will fall into deep thought after seeing these data.

Classic old brands are not working well, and domestic new brands are also struggling to make a splash. Several brands that have been popular in recent years are only mediocre compared to last year. Although the GMV of a domestic brand ranks first, its sales volume has halved year-on-year, which means that the average customer spending has increased. On social media platforms, we can see that there is some room for improvement between consumers' brand awareness and average customer spending.

However, Blankme's sales have more than doubled year-on-year, which is hard to say has nothing to do with its intensive marketing activities in the past two years. Although the feminist marketing plan has been said to be tired and a bit like "old wine in a new bottle", when the brand can continue to deliver emotional value that users like, the two sides will always have a bond of going hand in hand.

The beauty industry is trendy, charming and ever-changing. “No one is forever young, but there is always someone who is young.”

4. Skin Care/Body Care/Essential Oils

Both old brands and newcomers are fighting against aging

The sales volume decline of the top 30 beauty and skin care brands is smaller than that of cosmetics. For these brands, a smaller decline is considered a "win".

Compared with last year's epidemic, becoming beautiful from the inside out is still a rigid demand of users. Judging from the continued growth of LA MER, Fresh and CPB, anti-aging and anti-wrinkle are the core demands.

Daofa noticed that Kelijin ranked TOP1. This domestic brand was first founded in 2008 and is affiliated to Juzi Bio. Its core technology is "human-like collagen", focusing on anti-aging, skin care and repair. Since 2021, Kelijin has frequently appeared in the content posted by skin care vertical influencers on Xiaohongshu and Douyin. Up to now, a large number of seeding posts have been accumulated on the entire network. Combined with the increase in GMV of Kelijin's big promotion, the trend of functional skin care will continue.

A popular brand that also focuses on functional skin care has seen its sales drop by nearly 50% this year. Earlier, during the 2022 Double Eleven period, some netizens compared the brand's historical event prices and daily prices and found that it would only offer more favorable prices during annual promotions (such as Double Eleven). During small-scale nodes like March 8, brands are prone to fall into the vicious circle of "no promotion, no sales" .

5. Outdoor/Mountaineering/Camping/Travel Products

A new look for an old brand

Camel's sales data not only took the top spot in Tmall's category, but its GMV more than doubled compared with last year. Daofa learned that Camel was one of the first brands to enter the Taobao system, and has also set up e-commerce live broadcast bases in Hangzhou, Guangzhou and other places. Led by the official team, dozens of live broadcast rooms have joined the battle, further amplifying the existing advantages of shelf e-commerce.

Relatively speaking, emerging brands are not having an easy time. The sales figures of one brand have dropped by 70% year-on-year.

In fact, when the brand sought to go public in 2022, its financial data triggered a round of not-so-optimistic discussions, and many people were not optimistic about its "focus on marketing and neglect of research and development" operating model. Recently, the brand is making a second sprint to go public. If it cannot solve the operating problems reflected in this big promotion, then the attitude of the capital market is likely to remain ambiguous.

The seemingly calm outdoor track is quietly reshuffled.

6. Sports/Yoga/Fitness/Fans Supplies

Even leading brands need to learn to tell refreshing stories

Ranked TOP1, lululemon has become the preferred equipment for the "middle class" when exercising, relying on its product reputation and core population marketing strategy. Daojie has analyzed this magical brand many times. You can go to B station to watch @刀姐doris 's video: "Why can lululemon cover every middle-class butt?" .

Other brands are not so lucky. Regardless of whether they are international brands or top domestic products, the sales data of this year's 3.8 promotion is not excellent compared with the same period last year.

The solidification of brand image is one reason, while broadening consumption scenarios is another idea. For example, Li Ning's youthful creation of its sub-brand "LI-NING 1990" combines more popular culture to interpret the life attitude of the younger generation.

In addition, from last year to now, the popularity of trendy lifestyles such as camping, frisbee, and yoga has been steadily cooling down - as trendy sports "cool down", the resistance of the sports themselves will be directly reflected in the sales of sporting goods.

Only when the tide goes out can you see who is swimming naked.

7. Women's clothing/ladies' boutique

Users are not so fond of wearing basic styles

Women's clothing and cosmetics are similar, with an overall decline. The GMV of more than one overseas fast fashion brand has dropped by 50-70%.

The sales volume and GMV of a certain overseas brand both dropped by nearly 90%, and its first store in mainland China has been closed recently. Last year, several sub-brands of the brand announced the closure of their Tmall flagship stores and their withdrawal from the Chinese market.

Looking through the comments of social media users, we can find that the overseas fast fashion brands that were once in the limelight have fallen out of favor. The appeal of basic styles and the quality of clothing have declined. Many users simply found relevant OEM factories on the 1688 platform, "buying is earning money." As various offline venues are opened up, people's demand for seasonal clothing will be more demanding in the future. (In fact, if you look at the men's clothing data of Tmall's 3.8 promotion, you will find that male users are not as fond of wearing basic styles as before 😅)

Among domestic brands, UR ranks the highest among the TOP30 brands, and it is expected that the brand premium will still have room for growth in the future.

Overseas fast fashion is shrinking at an accelerated pace, and this is the time for domestic fast fashion to seize the market, my friends!

8. Women's shoes/fashionable men's shoes/sports shoes

Men's shoes go to the left, women's shoes go to the right, and the "end of the universe" is Zulijian

Men's shoe sales data increased overall, while women's shoe sales performed the opposite. The sales data of various sub-brands under a certain old footwear group collectively plummeted.

The change in sales reflects the transformation problems that this footwear giant needs to face: the product lines of various sub-brands are highly homogeneous, and the positioning between brands is not very clearly differentiated.

In the category of men's and women's shoes, Zulijian's data performed well. Daofa looked for the reason and found that it was because last year, the Zulijian brand used a team of middle-aged and elderly models to display products in the live broadcast room. The whole activity directly broke through the circle and became popular on platforms such as Xiaohongshu, forming various ghost videos and hot memes. "Young people buy Zulijian in full" made the Z generation very excited, and Zulijian's products did receive this wave of traffic.

In addition, in the sports shoes category, the sales volume and GMV of a top domestic brand decreased by more than 50% year-on-year. On the contrary, Fila maintained a certain positive growth. In the latter, we see the necessity of brand rejuvenation and DTC population strategy.

9. Luggage and leather goods

Only with users' support can we have the right to "live off our past capital"

There are not many dark horses in this year's 3.8 promotion, and international brands occupy the top 5 of Tmall luggage.

The performance of two popular domestic luggage brands reported by DaoFa during the promotion increased and decreased respectively. In comparison, Songmont has a higher average order value, emphasizes design and texture, and focuses more on urban white-collar workers with certain economic capabilities.

From this we can see that in terms of brand repurchase rate, the purchasing power of the core group is still very decisive, which also echoes the LTV (user lifetime value) that DaoFa has always advocated.

10. Household appliances

The veterans can’t beat the newbies, the top 3 changed hands

Ecovacs, Tineco and Dreame ranked among the top three household appliances in Tmall’s 3.8 promotion. Looking beyond the Taobao system, these three companies also had good sales on Douyin e-commerce.

In particular, the emerging brand Dreamie, which has surpassed brands such as Ecovacs within two years of starting its Douyin e-commerce business, has won the top spot in its vertical category at many annual promotional events. Now it has added Taobao shelf e-commerce and continues to maintain a strong growth momentum.

A certain brand that was in the top 3 last year, originally relying on high-speed hair dryers to take the social platform by storm, has seen its sales and GMV nearly halved this year, indicating that the category mindset and brand premium established in the early days are being challenged by users.

Especially after the rise of the Leifen hair dryer on Douyin e-commerce and the success of the product, the public has become more disenchanted with these high-tech concepts. Why buy a product that costs two or three thousand when there is a comparable product? The veterans need to convince the target users with their stories again.

11. Baby Products/Children's Clothing

Moms’ shopping skills are ready to go

Judging from the data, the demand for baby and child products is more stable than that for children's clothing. The overall sales data of children's clothing fluctuates significantly. Considering the stockpiling habits of mothers, the 3.8 promotion is not the best time to stock up.

In the category of baby products, Pigeon surpassed the historical sales champion Babycare to become the top seller in this year's 3.8 promotion. The sales of some first-generation popular brands fell, while the sales of Manxi, which focuses on pregnancy and childbirth, increased slightly, and GMV increased steadily - under the segmented track, there are still segmented groups worthy of attention.

12. Pet Food/Supplies

Without further ado, everyone is still willing to spend money on their furry friends!

After looking at the sales data of the above 15 categories, let’s briefly summarize:

In this Tmall promotion, the overall momentum of new brands is insufficient, and the renewal of old brands has begun to show results; no matter how many product lines or how big the stall is, these are not the purpose, and having a skill (product/customer group) is the hard truth. Users need innovative products and sexy brand stories, but they must also be based on "eating healthy, wearing comfortable clothes, and using practical things."

Of course, in the context of Taobao, a good GMV performance of a brand promotion is often strongly correlated with the live broadcast room of the cooperating Taobao influencers. However, considering the continuity and daily nature of brand operations, this article does not analyze the cooperation with influencers.

Finally, as the consumer market is recovering, let us return to these two questions:

Q1: Which categories will explode first?

From the perspective of categories, areas with addictive properties (snacks, outdoor activities, etc.) and consumption path dependence (sports, pets, household appliances, etc.) are worthy of continued attention.

At the same time, please pay attention to this keyword: health +

Combined with food, you can provide lightweight snacks, and traditional tangerine peel tea can also be sold as a hot product;

Combined with shoes, elderly shoes have become a new trend for aunties to wear because they protect foot health...

In the post-epidemic era, people’s living habits have been profoundly changed. If brands want to take the initiative, they must stay in touch with consumers, conduct regular insights and follow up on strategies, and provide users with better consumption experience and emotional value by building reasonable consumption scenarios.

For example, snack nut brands can consider exploring new outdoor consumption scenarios. For example, in addition to camping and family gatherings, activities such as hiking and cycling are gradually entering people’s daily leisure life. It is better to find a group of like-minded user friends to create a new way of playing.

Q2: Which predictions are happening? Which ones are being proven wrong by reality?

Stay calm. Whether it is the 3.8 promotion this year or the 618 promotion when work just resumed last year, the "revenge consumption" we predicted has not been as "explosive" as we imagined. Some of the potential tracks we are optimistic about also need time to verify.

The good news is that now when we walk on the streets, we can finally feel the atmosphere of everyday life again. For brands, this year is a new starting point for online and offline + omni-channel diversified marketing, and everyone is ready!

We always believe that tomorrow will be better than today.

Notes:

Author: Chu Qing

Source public account: Knife Skills Research Institute (ID: DigipontClub), insight into new consumption, empowerment of new brands, analysis of new marketing, and creation of good Chinese brands.